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| #152912 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:40 PM 28.Sep.2007) TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142007 500 PM EDT FRI SEP 28 2007 THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE EARLIER TODAY. THERE ARE PATCHES OF DEEP CONVECTION BUT THE OUTFLOW IS BECOMING DISRUPTED. IN FACT...MICROWAVE DATA SHOWS THAT THE CENTER HAS BECOME EXPOSED AND LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CONVECTION. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KNOTS. SHIPS MODEL HAS CHANGED ITS TUNE AND SHOWS INCREASING WIND SHEAR OVER THE DEPRESSION. CONSEQUENTLY...THE MODEL SHOWS ONLY A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE DEPRESSION HAS THE CHANCE... ALTHOUGH SMALL...TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE THE SHEAR INCREASES FURTHER. THE DEPRESSION IS NOT EXPECTED TO SURVIVE BEYOND THREE DAYS. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AND THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/4 KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A NARROW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GLOBAL MODELS GUIDANCE EXCEPT BEYOND 48 HOURS WHEN GLOBAL GUIDANCE DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/2100Z 14.0N 27.0W 30 KT 12HR VT 29/0600Z 14.4N 27.7W 30 KT 24HR VT 29/1800Z 15.0N 29.0W 35 KT 36HR VT 30/0600Z 15.5N 30.5W 35 KT 48HR VT 30/1800Z 16.5N 32.5W 35 KT 72HR VT 01/1800Z 18.5N 34.5W 25 KT 96HR VT 02/1800Z 20.0N 35.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 03/1800Z 22.5N 36.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
