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| #152946 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:40 PM 28.Sep.2007) TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142007 1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 28 2007 CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN HAS INCREASED DURING THE EVENING...BUT IS BEING DISPLACED EAST OF THE CENTER BY WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT OVERPASS DID NOT SHOW ANY WINDS HIGHER THAN 25 KT OUTSIDE THE CONVECTION...WITH HIGHER SPEEDS IN THE CONVECTION LOOKING SUSPECT DUE TO RAIN CONTAMINATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT BASED MAINLY ON PERSISTENCE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 280/4. THE DEPRESSION IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A WEAK LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST WILL WEAKEN AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THIS EVOLUTION IS FORECAST TO STEER THE DEPRESSION WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD. MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF MODELS KEEPS A STRONGER RIDGE AND IN CONSEQUENCE SHOWS A MORE WESTERLY TRACK. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST UPPER-LEVEL WINDS TO BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK FOR PERHAPS 24 HR. AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE SHOULD ENCOUNTER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS AND INCREASING SHEAR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IN THE FIRST 12-24 HR...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING TO A DEPRESSION BY 36 HR AND TO A REMNANT LOW BY 96 HR. NONE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO EXIST AS A CLOSED CIRCULATION BY 120 HR...SO THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR DISSIPATION BY THAT TIME. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/0300Z 14.2N 27.5W 30 KT 12HR VT 29/1200Z 14.5N 28.5W 35 KT 24HR VT 30/0000Z 15.1N 30.0W 35 KT 36HR VT 30/1200Z 15.8N 31.8W 30 KT 48HR VT 01/0000Z 16.8N 33.2W 30 KT 72HR VT 02/0000Z 18.5N 35.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 03/0000Z 20.5N 37.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
