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| #153017 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:43 AM 29.Sep.2007) TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122007 1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 29 2007 STRONGER THAN AVERAGE SHEAR NEAR KAREN IS WINNING THE BATTLE. KAREN IS BECOMING DISORGANIZED AS THE CENTER IS LOSING DEFINITION AND THE CONVECTION REMAINS WELL REMOVED FROM THE AREA OF MINIMUM SURFACE PRESSURE. IT LOOKS LIKE KAREN IS BECOMING A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. I WAS TEMPTED TO MAKE THIS THE LAST ADVISORY BUT INSTEAD...AND A BETTER OPTION...IS TO DOWNGRADE KAREN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND FORECAST IT TO BE A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS WILL GIVE SOME TIME TO MONITOR IF A NEW CENTER REFORMS NEAR THE CONVECTION. THIS IS BASED ON THE FACT THAT GLOBAL MODELS INSIST ON KEEPING THE CYCLONE. MOREOVER...THE GFDL AND HWRF MAKE KAREN A HURRICANE BY 3 TO 4 DAYS. THESE MODELS ASSUME THAT KAREN WILL SURVIVE THE BAND OF STRONG SHEAR FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THIS SOLUTION SEEMS UNLIKELY...I HIGHLY VALUE THE NUMERICAL MODELS...SO KAREN OR ITS REMNANTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE DEPRESSION...OR THE BROAD REMNANT CIRCULATION..IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO UNTIL DISSIPATION. THERE IS NO REASON TO DISCUSS TRACK GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME WHICH IN FACT HAS NOT CHANGED. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/1500Z 16.8N 53.8W 30 KT 12HR VT 30/0000Z 17.5N 55.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 30/1200Z 19.0N 56.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 01/0000Z 20.5N 57.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
