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| #153020 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:52 AM 29.Sep.2007) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142007 1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 29 2007 SHEAR CONTINUES TO BE A PROBLEM FOR STORMS IN THE DEEP TROPICS. THE CENTER OF MELISSA HAS ALSO BECOME DETACHED FROM THE CONVECTION DUE TO WESTERLY SHEAR. HOWEVER...THIS SHEAR PATTERN IS COMMON AT THE END OF SEPTEMBER NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE CLOUD PATTERN STILL SUPPORTS TROPICAL STORM STATUS GIVEN THE LARGE AND WELL- DEFINED CIRCULATION AND THE TIGHT SURFACE CENTER. SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN MARGINAL FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND MELISSA COULD KEEP ITS STORM STATUS. THEREAFTER...BOTH SHEAR AND A COOL OCEAN WILL LIKELY TAKE A TOLL ON MELISSA. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE A REMNANT LOW BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IF NOT EARLIER. MELISSA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 7 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A MODEST SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXPAND A LITTLE AND THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP THE CYCLONE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT EVEN KNOW MELISSA IS THERE...AND IF THEY KNOW...THEY DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE IN A DAY OR TWO. THAT SEEMS LIKE A REASONABLE MODEL SOLUTION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/1500Z 15.2N 28.4W 35 KT 12HR VT 30/0000Z 15.6N 29.4W 35 KT 24HR VT 30/1200Z 16.5N 31.0W 35 KT 36HR VT 01/0000Z 17.6N 33.4W 35 KT 48HR VT 01/1200Z 18.5N 35.5W 30 KT 72HR VT 02/1200Z 20.0N 39.1W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 03/1200Z 21.5N 42.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 04/1200Z 23.5N 45.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
