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| #153062 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:31 PM 29.Sep.2007) TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122007 500 PM EDT SAT SEP 29 2007 THE SHEAR HAS BEATEN KAREN. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT KAREN NO LONGER HAS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER AND BASICALLY DOES NOT QUALIFY AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH STRONG SQUALLS IN A FEW CONVECTIVE BANDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION. THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE... OR THE REMNANTS OF KAREN...ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. AT THIS POINT...I AM NOT GOING TO SPECULATE IF KAREN IS GOING TO REGENERATE OR NOT. MODELS HAVE THE LUXURY OF GOING BACK AND FORTH IN STRENGTHENING OR WEAKENING KAREN IN EACH RUN...BUT I DON'T. THE BEST WE CAN DO IS TO MONITOR THE SYSTEM CLOSELY...AND IF IT COMES BACK...WHICH IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...REINITIATE ADVISORIES. FOR NOW...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON KAREN. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/2100Z 17.3N 54.3W 30 KT 12HR VT 30/0600Z 18.0N 55.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
