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| #153066 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:37 PM 29.Sep.2007) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142007 500 PM EDT SAT SEP 29 2007 AFTER BEING EXPOSED FOR A FEW HOURS...NEW DEEP CONVECTION HAS REGENERATED NEAR THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES... PRIMARILY OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS FROM SAB AS WELL AS THOSE PROVIDED BY UW-CIMSS INDICATE THAT MELISSA IS STILL A 35-KNOT TROPICAL STORM. SINCE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER MELISSA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...THE CYCLONE COULD KEEP ITS STORM STATUS FOR THAT PERIOD. THEREAFTER...BOTH SHEAR AND A COOL OCEAN WILL LIKELY TAKE A TOLL ON MELISSA. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE A REMNANT LOW BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IF NOT EARLIER. MELISSA APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A MODEST SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXPAND A LITTLE AND THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP THE CYCLONE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK. IN THE LAST RUN...MODELS KEEP MELISSA A LITTLE LONGER...AND ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THE CYCLONE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OT THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/2100Z 15.6N 29.5W 35 KT 12HR VT 30/0600Z 16.3N 30.9W 35 KT 24HR VT 30/1800Z 17.0N 33.0W 35 KT 36HR VT 01/0600Z 18.0N 35.0W 35 KT 48HR VT 01/1800Z 19.0N 37.0W 30 KT 72HR VT 02/1800Z 21.5N 41.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 03/1800Z 24.0N 44.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 04/1800Z 26.0N 45.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
