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| #153107 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:37 PM 29.Sep.2007) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142007 1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 29 2007 VERY DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTING NEAR MELISSA FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE JUST SOUTH OF A NEW BURST OF THUNDERSTORMS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE INCREASING A LITTLE...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE NUDGED UPWARD TO 40 KT. THIS INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR AFFECTS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. A SLOW WEAKENING IS SHOWN IN THE NHC FORECAST... AND THEN IS A LITTLE FASTER AFTER 36 HOURS AS THE SHIPS MODEL DIAGNOSES OVER 30 KT OF DESTRUCTIVE WESTERLY SHEAR. MELISSA IS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND SINCE SMALL STORMS ARE TYPICALLY MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO SHEAR...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING FOR IT TO DISSIPATE FASTER THAN SHOWN BELOW. THE STORM APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295/8...BUT THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE CENTER BEING OBSCURED ON SATELLITE IMAGES. A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF MELISSA SHOULD KEEP THE STORM ON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK WITH A SMALL ACCELERATION. IF THE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES A BIT...IT MAY BRIEFLY MOVE A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT...BUT THAT TRACK WOULD TAKE IT OVER COOLER WATERS MORE QUICKLY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE UMKET/GFDL/NOGAPS MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/0300Z 15.8N 30.2W 40 KT 12HR VT 30/1200Z 16.5N 31.6W 40 KT 24HR VT 01/0000Z 17.4N 33.7W 35 KT 36HR VT 01/1200Z 18.4N 35.8W 35 KT 48HR VT 02/0000Z 19.5N 38.0W 30 KT 72HR VT 03/0000Z 22.0N 42.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 04/0000Z 24.5N 44.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE |
