Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995
The Atlantic is quiet
|
Show Selection: |
| #154652 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:37 PM 11.Oct.2007) TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152007 500 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2007 THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EAST OF BERMUDA HAS BEEN MAINTAINING STEADY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS OR SO...AND DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 18Z HAVE RISEN TO T1.5. ON THIS BASIS...ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN. AN ASCAT PASS NEAR 14Z SUGGESTS THAT MAXIMUM WINDS ARE NEAR 30 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 075/14. THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER LOW THAT IS PRODUCING STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CENTER. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE REPLACED BY EVEN STRONGER NORTHERLIES OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. IN THIS STRONG SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...THE MOTION OF THE CYCLONE WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CONNECTION THE CENTER MAINTAINS WITH THE FLOW ALOFT. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SEEM TO HAVE ALREADY SEPARATED THE CENTER FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH OF COURSE HASN'T HAPPENED YET. AS A RESULT...MY FORECAST TAKES THE CYCLONE A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THAN MOST OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE. BEFORE TOO LONG...HOWEVER...THE SHEAR SHOULD PREVAIL...LEAVING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION BEHIND TO MEANDER UNTIL THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVES IN THE AREA IN ABOUT TWO DAYS. WITH STRONG SHEAR FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE CYCLONE...LITTLE OR NO STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED. THE OFFICICAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND HWRF GUIDANCE. THE GFDL DOES BRING THE DEPRESSION TO STORM STRENGTH...BUT THERE IS ONLY A VERY SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS TO OCCUR. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY FROM KAREN'S REMNANTS HAS PLAYED A ROLE IN THE GENESIS OF THIS CYCLONE. HOWEVER...THE EVIDENCE IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO ATTACH THAT NAME TO THIS SYSTEM. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/2100Z 30.1N 50.5W 30 KT 12HR VT 12/0600Z 30.1N 49.0W 30 KT 24HR VT 12/1800Z 30.0N 48.0W 30 KT 36HR VT 13/0600Z 30.0N 48.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 13/1800Z 31.0N 47.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN |
