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| #156918 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:49 PM 28.Oct.2007) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM NOEL SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 215 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2007 THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO REFLECT CHANGES IN THE INITIAL AND FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY FOR TROPICAL STORM NOEL. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 45 KT BASED ON 1000-FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF ABOUT 55 KT...AND SFMR ESTIMATES BETWEEN 45 AND 50 KT. INTENSITY FORECAST HAS ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY UPWARD. THE AIRCRAFT LOCATED THE CIRCULATION CENTER ABOUT 45 N MI NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RELOCATION. PLEASE NOTE THAT THE PRONUNCIATION FOR THE THIS STORM'S NAME IS NOL...WITH A LONG O SOUND AND JUST ONE SYLLABLE...OR EXACTLY LIKE THE WORD KNOLL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/1815Z 16.9N 72.1W 45 KT 12HR VT 29/0000Z 17.6N 72.7W 50 KT 24HR VT 29/1200Z 18.7N 74.2W 55 KT 36HR VT 30/0000Z 19.9N 75.5W 60 KT 48HR VT 30/1200Z 21.1N 76.6W 50 KT...INLAND OVER CUBA 72HR VT 31/1200Z 22.5N 77.5W 55 KT 96HR VT 01/1200Z 23.5N 77.5W 55 KT 120HR VT 02/1200Z 25.5N 75.5W 50 KT $$ FORECASTER KNABB |
