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| #156947 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:03 PM 28.Oct.2007) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 500 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2007 EARLIER TODAY THE CIRCULATION CENTER REFORMED CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION AND THE CYCLONE STRENGTHENED...AS CONFIRMED BY DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT. THE POSITION FIXES FROM THE AIRCRAFT HAVE BOUNCED AROUND A BIT...BUT OVERALL THE SYSTEM IS ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR 330/4. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS RAISED SLIGHTLY TO 50 KT BASED ON SFMR AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OBSERVATIONS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE CONFINED TO THE AREA BETWEEN THE CIRCULATION CENTER AND THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA...BUT PLENTY OF RAINBANDS EXTEND WELL TO THE EAST AND SOUTH WHILE THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT IS MOSTLY CONVECTION-FREE. FOLLOWING THE CENTER RELOCATION...THE GLOBAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE HWRF AND GFDL WHICH STILL PROVIDE THE EASTERNMOST SOLUTIONS. NEARLY ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW A NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WEAKENS AND SLIDES EASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. BEYOND ABOUT 48 HOURS THE MODELS DIVERGE...WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECASTING A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD JOG NEAR OR OVER CUBA...WHILE GFDL AND HWRF HEAD NORTHWARD. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE AND IS NUDGED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS/SPECIAL ADVISORY. EVEN THOUGH NOEL HAS NOTABLY STRENGTHENED TODAY...IT IS NOT CLEAR HOW MUCH MORE INTENSIFICATION WILL OCCUR. THE AMOUNT OF INTERACTION WITH LAND DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS IS STILL RATHER UNCERTAIN...BUT THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST INDICATES STRENGTHENING SINCE THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOSTLY OVER WATER IF THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST VERIFIES. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT NOEL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE PRIOR TO PASSING OVER CUBA. THEREAFTER...STRENGTHENING SHOULD BE LIMITED BY WIND SHEAR IMPOSED BY THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. PLEASE NOTE THAT THE PRONUNCIATION FOR THE THIS STORM'S NAME IS NOL...WITH A LONG O SOUND AND JUST ONE SYLLABLE...OR EXACTLY LIKE THE WORD KNOLL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/2100Z 16.8N 71.9W 50 KT 12HR VT 29/0600Z 17.9N 72.8W 55 KT 24HR VT 29/1800Z 19.1N 74.0W 60 KT 36HR VT 30/0600Z 20.2N 75.0W 60 KT...INLAND OVER CUBA 48HR VT 30/1800Z 21.4N 75.8W 45 KT...OVER WATER 72HR VT 31/1800Z 23.5N 76.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 01/1800Z 26.0N 75.0W 50 KT 120HR VT 02/1800Z 29.0N 73.5W 50 KT $$ FORECASTER KNABB |
