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| #157036 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:00 AM 29.Oct.2007) TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM NOEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 0900 UTC MON OCT 29 2007 AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 5 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA IN THE PROVINCES OF GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GUANTANAMO...AND HOLGUIN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. THIS WATCH WILL LIKELY BE LOWERED LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 72.3W AT 29/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 90SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 72.3W AT 29/0900Z AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 72.2W FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 19.4N 72.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 21.1N 74.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 22.2N 75.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 23.0N 75.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 26.0N 76.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 29.0N 74.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 32.0N 70.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 72.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN |
