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| #157055 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:00 AM 29.Oct.2007) TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NOEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 800 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2007 ...NOEL BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED BUT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING RAINS OVER HISPANIOLA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI...AND IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA IN THE PROVINCES OF GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GUANTANAMO...AND HOLGUIN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. THIS WATCH WILL LIKELY BE LOWERED LATER TODAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.4 WEST OR NEAR PORT AU PRINCE HAITI. NOEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...WITH A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF NOEL IS BECOMING DISRUPTED BY THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA...BUT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE WESTERN COAST OF HAITI DURING THE DAY TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...70 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AS NOEL CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA...BUT RESTRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IF THE CENTER EMERGES OVER ATLANTIC WATERS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. STRONG WINDS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM FLORIDA INTO THE CAROLINAS ARE NOT ASSOCIATED WITH NOEL. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS. NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 30 INCHES. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THESE RAINS... PARTICULARLY IN HISPANIOLA...ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...18.3 N...72.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB |
