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| #157074 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:46 AM 29.Oct.2007) TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM NOEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 1500 UTC MON OCT 29 2007 AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 1100 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED IN THE PROVINCES OF GRANMA AND SANTIAGO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO AND HOLGUIN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI. AT 1100 AM EDT...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR JAMAICA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 73.0W AT 29/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 90SE 0SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..175NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 73.0W AT 29/1500Z AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 72.6W FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 21.2N 73.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 0SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 22.4N 74.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 0SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 23.4N 75.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 24.3N 76.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 26.0N 76.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 0SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 28.0N 75.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 30.0N 72.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N 73.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KNABB |
