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| #157092 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:00 PM 29.Oct.2007) TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NOEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 200 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2007 ...NOEL REMAINS DISORGANIZED...CENTERED NEAR THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA... ...HEAVY RAINS NOW SPREADING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS... AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR HAITI SOUTH OF GONAIVES HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO GONAIVES. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA IN THE PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO AND HOLGUIN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.8 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES...50 KM...NORTHEAST OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING NOEL. NOEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...25 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF NOEL WILL BE MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS OR NORTHEASTERN CUBA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS. NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 30 INCHES. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THESE RAINS... PARTICULARLY IN HISPANIOLA...ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...20.5 N...73.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER KNABB/MAINELLI |
