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| #157162 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:34 PM 29.Oct.2007) TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NOEL ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 1100 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2007 ...NOEL PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUING OVER HISPANIOLA...TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA EARLY TUESDAY... AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WESTWARD TO INCLUDE THE PROVINCE OF CIEGO DE AVILA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS... HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR HAITI HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. INTEREST IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NOEL. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA EARLY TUESDAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.0 WEST OR ABOUT 305 MILES...490 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU. NOEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF NOEL SHOULD MOVE BETWEEN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS. NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 30 INCHES. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. THESE RAINS...PARTICULARLY IN HISPANIOLA...ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...21.2 N...75.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS |
