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| #157164 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:08 PM 29.Oct.2007) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 1100 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2007 SO FAR...NOEL HAS NOT BECOME APPRECIABLY BETTER ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE IMAGES AND THE SYSTEM STILL HAS A BROAD AND SPRAWLING APPEARANCE. SOME CELLS OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING NEAR THE CENTER BUT THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS ARE GENERALLY OCCURRING FARTHER TO THE NORTH. THE HOLGUIN RADAR IN CUBA ALSO INDICATED THAT THE STORM WAS NOT YET VERY WELL ORGANIZED. CIRRUS-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE BUT LIMITED OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE DVORAK ESTIMATES. THE CENTER IS NOT EASY TO FIND ON INFRARED IMAGES BUT A 1002 MB SHIP OR BUOY OBSERVATION NEAR 0000 UTC WAS LIKELY NOT FAR FROM THE CENTER. THE HOLGUIN RADAR WAS ALSO USEFUL IN LOCATING THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 315/11. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE. IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO TURN NOEL NORTHWARD. THEREAFTER A NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION IN THE FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED. THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK PREDICTION MODELS...IN PARTICULAR THE GFS...GFDL...HWRF... GFDN...AND NOGAPS...HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS CYCLE AROUND THE POINT OF CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE FLORIDA COAST. ACCORDINGLY THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE 36 TO 48 HOUR TIME FRAME... ALBEIT NOT QUITE AS FAR EAST AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE NEARBY PRESENCE OF A WEAKENING UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE IS PROBABLY STILL HAVING A SLIGHT INHIBITING EFFECT ON THE INTENSIFICATION OF NOEL. WATER VAPOR IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THIS UPPER LOW IS IN THE PROCESS OF DISSIPATING. THEREFORE SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THEREAFTER...WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BECOME PROHIBITIVELY STRONG AND THIS SHOULD HALT THE INTENSIFICATION. BY DAY 4 OR SOONER NOEL WILL BE EMBEDDED IN A STRONG BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT AND SHOULD BE TRANSFORMED INTO A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. AFTER CONSULTATION WITH THE MIAMI WFO...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOT BEING ISSUED AT THIS TIME FOR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. HIGH WIND WATCHES ARE ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR MIAMI-DADE...BROWARD...AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES DUE TO THE EXPECTATION OF AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT PRODUCED BY THE COMBINATION OF A STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND THE APPROACH OF NOEL. HOWEVER...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY STILL BE REQUIRED FOR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA EARLY TUESDAY....DEPENDING ON THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII OF THE TROPICAL STORM. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/0300Z 21.2N 75.0W 45 KT 12HR VT 30/1200Z 22.2N 76.3W 50 KT 24HR VT 31/0000Z 23.3N 77.6W 55 KT 36HR VT 31/1200Z 24.4N 78.4W 55 KT 48HR VT 01/0000Z 25.5N 78.5W 50 KT 72HR VT 02/0000Z 28.5N 75.5W 45 KT 96HR VT 03/0000Z 33.0N 70.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 04/0000Z 38.0N 64.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS |
