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| #157234 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:40 AM 30.Oct.2007) TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NOEL ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 1100 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2007 ...NOEL WEAKENS A LITTLE OVER CUBA... ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER HISPANIOLA...AND PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA... AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...BUT A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO. INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NOEL. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.4 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES... 60 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA AND ABOUT 270 MILES ...435 KM...SOUTH OF NASSAU IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. NOEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF NOEL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INLAND OVER CUBA TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT EMERGE OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA BY TOMORROW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS. NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 30 INCHES. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. THESE RAINS...PARTICULARLY IN HISPANIOLA... ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...21.1 N...77.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER KNABB |
