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| #157275 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:40 PM 30.Oct.2007) TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NOEL ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 500 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2007 ...NOEL STILL CENTERED INLAND OVER CUBA... AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR CUBA WESTWARD AND SOUTHWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA... HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NOEL. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA TONIGHT OR TOMORROW. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.0 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES... 45 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA AND ABOUT 280 MILES...450 KM...SOUTH OF NASSAU. NOEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF NOEL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER CUBA TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT EMERGE OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA TOMORROW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS. NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 30 INCHES. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. THESE RAINS...PARTICULARLY IN HISPANIOLA... ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...21.0 N...78.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER KNABB/LANDSEA |
