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| #157279 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:00 PM 30.Oct.2007) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 500 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2007 THE CENTER OF NOEL IS STILL CLEARLY DISCERNIBLE IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...HAVING SPENT THE DAY MOVING ESSENTIALLY DUE WESTWARD... ALTHOUGH AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED OF ABOUT 7 KNOTS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH THE POSITION DERIVED FROM THE IMAGERY...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THOSE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THE CENTER COULD BE A BIT SOUTH OF OUR ADVISORY POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS SET TO 35 KT...BASED IN PART ON A SURFACE WIND OBSERVATION OF 35 KT FROM A DROPSONDE...WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...LAUNCHED BY THE NOAA GULFSTREAM-IV JET THAT HAS BEGUN ITS SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION. DESPITE THE CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION TODAY...NOEL IS STILL EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTH DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...AS THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH SLIDES EASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM. WHILE THE VARIOUS DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE FOR NOEL TO GAIN ANY LATITUDE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STAYS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH IS ALONG THE SAME PATH BUT JUST A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FROM 48 HOURS ON...THE NEW TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED IN TAKING NOEL QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD WHILE UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH APPEARS LIKELY UNTIL THE SYSTEM EMERGES BACK OVER WATER NORTH OF CUBA. AFTER THAT...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS IN CALLING FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING WHILE NOEL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED BY 72 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY CONTINUED STRENGTHENING AS SUGGESTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. SOME OF THE MODELS PREDICT THAT NOEL ITSELF WILL NOT LAST BEYOND ABOUT 3 DAYS...AND INSTEAD CALL FOR NOEL TO BE ABSORBED WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE OF AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE FARTHER NORTH. FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL ASSUME THAT NOEL WILL REMAIN INTACT AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS CURRENTLY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF FLORIDA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AND ARE NOT DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE CIRCULATION OF NOEL. SEE STATEMENTS FROM NWS LOCAL FORECAST OFFICES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/2100Z 21.0N 78.0W 35 KT...INLAND OVER CUBA 12HR VT 31/0600Z 21.6N 78.8W 35 KT...NEAR S COAST OF CUBA 24HR VT 31/1800Z 22.6N 79.2W 35 KT...NEAR N COAST OF CUBA 36HR VT 01/0600Z 24.1N 78.8W 40 KT...OVER WATER 48HR VT 01/1800Z 26.8N 77.2W 45 KT 72HR VT 02/1800Z 34.0N 70.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 03/1800Z 41.0N 63.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 04/1800Z 48.5N 56.5W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER KNABB/LANDSEA |
