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| #157345 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:34 AM 31.Oct.2007) TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NOEL ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 500 AM EDT WED OCT 31 2007 ...NOEL NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...APPROACHING THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS... GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NOEL. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.2 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES...85 KM...NORTH-NORTHWEST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA AND ABOUT 205 MILES...335 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NASSAU. NOEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF NOEL OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA TODAY AND NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AFTER THE CENTER EMERGES OVER WATER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM FROM THE CENTER. GUANTANAMO BAY CUBA RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 43 MPH...69 KM/HR. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. CAYO COCO CUBA RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS. NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA....BRINGING TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS TO 20 TO 30 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. THESE RAINS...PARTICULARLY IN HISPANIOLA AND CUBA... ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...22.1 N...78.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN/BROWN |
