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| #157421 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:34 PM 31.Oct.2007) TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NOEL ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 500 PM EDT WED OCT 31 2007 ...NOEL LINGERING ALONG THE CUBAN COAST...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST... AT 5PM EDT...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF OCEAN REEF TO JUPITER INLET FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS... GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.8 WEST OR ABOUT 190 MILES...305 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 240 MILES...385 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI FLORIDA. NOEL HAS BEEN STATIONARY FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT A GENERALLY NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS. NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...OVER THE BAHAMAS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. RAINS IN HISPANIOLA AND CUBA ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...22.6 N...78.8 W. MOVEMENT... STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN |
