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#157595 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:34 PM 01.Nov.2007)
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM NOEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
2100 UTC THU NOV 01 2007

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 77.1W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 75NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 77.1W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 77.4W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 27.6N 75.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 30.7N 73.8W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...180NE 240SE 90SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 34.5N 71.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...180NE 0SE 0SW 180NW.
34 KT...300NE 360SE 180SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 39.0N 68.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT...240NE 240SE 180SW 180NW.
34 KT...420NE 420SE 240SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 50.5N 60.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT...300NE 300SE 180SW 0NW.
34 KT...480NE 540SE 420SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 60.0N 52.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.5N 77.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN