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| #157615 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:03 PM 01.Nov.2007) TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE NOEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 800 PM EDT THU NOV 01 2007 ...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS HURRICANE NOEL AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS... A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. THE WATCH AND WARNING FOR THE BAHAMAS WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED TONIGHT. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF RECENTLY-UPGRADED HURRICANE NOEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.5 WEST OR ABOUT 115 MILES...190 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS AND ABOUT 810 MILES...1300 WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. NOEL HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH...29 KM/HR...AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS. AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NOEL IS NOW A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. HOWEVER...IT IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NOEL SHOULD THEN STRENGTHEN AND INCREASE IN SIZE AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. INTERESTS ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD SHOULD CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL NWS FORECAST OFFICE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...AND THESE WINDS ARE LIMITED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DROPPED TO 981 MB...28.97 INCHES. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS. NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES IN THE BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 18 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN CUBA...WHERE THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR SO ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA. REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...26.5 N...76.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
