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| #157732 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:52 AM 02.Nov.2007) TCDAT1 HURRICANE NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 1100 AM EDT FRI NOV 02 2007 THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 70 KT...BASED ON AN SFMR REPORT OF 69 KT ABOUT 45 NMI NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF NOEL IS DETERIORATING RAPIDLY...HOWEVER...WITH DEEP CONVECTION EVAPORATING OVER THE CENTER. THE RECONNAISSANCE DATA AT 12Z STILL SHOWED A DISTINCT WARM CORE AT 700 MB...AND CO-LOCATED SURFACE AND 700 MB CENTERS...SO NOEL REMAINS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR NOW. IF THE CORE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DECAY AT ITS PRESENT RATE...NOEL WILL LIKELY BE DECLARED EXTRATROPICAL THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. WHILE NOEL MIGHT WEAKEN A LITTLE BIT AS THE CORE DECAYS OVER 26C WATERS...THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME STRENGTHENING AFTER EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 040/15...WHICH IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS MOTION. NOEL REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A STRONG SOUTH- SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AS THIS TROUGH DIGS IN BEHIND NOEL...A RETURN TO THE PREVIOUS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD HEADING IS EXPECTED. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN UNUSUALLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM NOAA BUOY 41047 WERE USED TO EXPAND THE 50 KT WIND RADII IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/1500Z 29.2N 73.8W 70 KT 12HR VT 03/0000Z 32.5N 71.5W 70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 03/1200Z 37.1N 69.7W 70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 04/0000Z 41.8N 66.9W 75 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 04/1200Z 47.5N 62.5W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 05/1200Z 58.0N 54.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 06/1200Z 67.0N 47.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN |
