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| #157790 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:55 PM 02.Nov.2007) TCDAT1 HURRICANE NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 500 PM EDT FRI NOV 02 2007 NOEL IS MAKING THE TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE THIS AFTERNOON. AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE DATA AROUND 17Z SHOWED PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 90 KT...THOUGH SFMR OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE INTENSITY IS STILL NEAR 70 KT. THE AIRCRAFT DATA ALSO INDICATED THAT NOEL STILL DISPLAYED A WARM CORE AND A FAIRLY TIGHT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS. SINCE THEN...THE INNER CORE CONVECTION HAS SUBSTANTIALLY DIMINISHED AND IS NOW INSUFFICIENT TO QUALIFY NOEL AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. IN ADDITION...THE FSU CYCLONE PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM SUGGESTS THAT NOEL'S THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURE IS BEGINNING TO BECOME ASYMMETRIC AND FRONTAL. THUS THIS WILL BE THE LAST NOEL ADVISORY. CURRENT MOTION IS 040/17. THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE SMALL SPREAD...THOUGH THE 12Z SUITE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A BLEND BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH MORE WEIGHT ON THE LATTER. BAROCLINIC FORCING SHOULD FURTHER INTENSIFY NOEL AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT ACCELERATES TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS BOTH DEEPEN THE CYCLONE AND EXPAND THE HIGH WIND AREAS. THE INTENSITY AND SIZE FORECASTS ARE BASED UPON THE CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/2100Z 31.4N 72.4W 70 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 12HR VT 03/0600Z 34.5N 71.4W 70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 03/1800Z 39.4N 69.3W 75 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 04/0600Z 44.7N 65.7W 80 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 04/1800Z 50.6N 61.1W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 05/1800Z 61.0N 52.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 06/1800Z 68.0N 46.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA/FRANKLIN |
