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| #163425 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:37 PM 11.Dec.2007) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172007 1000 PM EST TUE DEC 11 2007 DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION BECAME MORE TYPICAL OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE SINCE DEEP CONVECTION FORMED NEAR THE CENTER. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATED THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE CLOSER TO THE CENTER. PEAK WINDS MEASURED BY THE PLANE REACHED 55 KNOTS AT FLIGHT LEVEL AND 54 KNOTS BY SFMR. THE PROXIMITY OF THE WINDS TO THE CENTER AND THE PRESENCE OF DEEP CONVECTION SUGGESTED THAT OLGA MADE THE TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL STORM. RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT COULD NOT MEASURE DATA FROM OLGA'S CENTER BECAUSE THE CYCLONE HAD ALREADY MOVED INLAND PRIOR TO A POSSIBLE PENETRATION. INITIAL INTENSITY WAS ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 50 KNOTS BUT MOST LIKELY... WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN VERY SOON IF IT HAS NOT STARTED ALREADY DUE TO OLGA'S INTERACTION WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA. EVEN LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANES RARELY SURVIVE IT. OLGA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 KNOTS AROUND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THIS STEERING PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AS INDICATED BY GLOBAL MODELS...AND OLGA OR ITS REMNANTS SHOULD CONTINUE WESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA UNTIL DISSIPATION. IT WOULD BE VERY DIFFICULT FOR OLGA TO RECOVER FROM THE EFFECTS OF LAND AND EVEN MORE DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME THE EXPECTED STRONG SHEAR ALONG ITS PATH. HOWEVER...IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT BOTH THE GFDL AND HWRF KEEP OLGA AS A TROPICAL STORM THROUGH FIVE DAYS. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM OLGA CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. THESE RAINS SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD OVER EASTERN CUBA WHICH IS ALREADY WET FROM NOEL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/0300Z 19.0N 70.6W 50 KT 12HR VT 12/1200Z 19.0N 73.0W 35 KT 24HR VT 13/0000Z 19.5N 76.0W 30 KT 36HR VT 13/1200Z 19.5N 78.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 14/0000Z 19.5N 80.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 15/0000Z 19.5N 83.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
