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| #163557 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:33 PM 12.Dec.2007) TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172007 400 PM EST WED DEC 12 2007 AN ASCAT PASS FROM 14Z DID NOT SHOW ANY TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...AND THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS LOWERED TO 30 KT. OLGA HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION SINCE ABOUT 06Z...AND HAS BEEN UNCLASSIFIABLE BY THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE SINCE THAT TIME. HOWEVER... THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CONVECTION OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND SO WE'LL HANG ON TO IT...AGAIN...JUST A LITTLE BIT LONGER. THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF OLGA IS VERY DRY...AND THE LONG-ANTICIPATED NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS BECOMING APPARENT OVER THE CENTER. THEREFORE...SIGNIFICANT REGENERATION IS NOT EXPECTED. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/20. OLGA REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED JUST EAST OF FLORIDA...AND THIS RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER OLGA...OR ITS REMNANTS...WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AFTER THAT...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN...AND IF OLGA HAS ANY VERTICAL DEPTH AT THAT TIME IT SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD...BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED WITHIN AN APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE LATE IN THE PERIOD. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/2100Z 18.9N 76.9W 30 KT 12HR VT 13/0600Z 19.1N 79.8W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 13/1800Z 19.4N 82.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 14/0600Z 19.9N 84.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 14/1800Z 20.4N 85.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 15/1800Z 22.0N 87.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN/MAINELLI |
