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| #163591 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:35 PM 12.Dec.2007) TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172007 1000 PM EST WED DEC 12 2007 ONCE AGAIN...I HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO TERMINATE ANOTHER TROPICAL CYCLONE THIS SEASON. SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR FROM PILON CUBA SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS BECOMING LESS DEFINED. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS STILL ESTABLISHED...BUT THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT PERSISTENT CONVECTION FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS OR SO. THE CYCLONE IS INITIALIZED AS A 25-KNOT TROPICAL DEPRESSION BUT FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW VERY SOON...PERHAPS AS WE SPEAK. THERE IS ALWAYS A CHANCE THAT SOME CONVECTION REDEVELOPS INTERMITTENTLY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AS THE REMNANT LOW MOVES WESTWARD ABOUT 10 TO 15 KNOTS ACROSS THE WARM WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO STRONG TO ALLOW REINTENSIFICATION...FAMOUS LAST WORDS. THE LOW WILL LIKELY BECOME ABSORBED BY AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IN 3 DAYS OR SO OVER THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON OLGA UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/0300Z 18.9N 77.6W 25 KT 12HR VT 13/1200Z 19.0N 80.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 14/0000Z 19.0N 82.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 14/1200Z 19.5N 83.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 15/0000Z 20.0N 85.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 16/0000Z 22.0N 86.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
