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| #16610 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:38 PM 01.Dec.2004) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM EST WED DEC 01 2004 OTTO IS HANGING ON AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM FOR NOW. DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE RATHER MEAGER AND IS CONFINED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE. BECAUSE THE STORM IS NEAR THE AXIS OF A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...THE VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS NOT TOO STRONG AT THE MOMENT. HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ZONAL OVER THE AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WOULD BRING ABOUT A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR. SO...EVEN THOUGH OTTO IS MOVING TOWARD SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS...IT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE DUE TO A HOSTILE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT. INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST...145/5. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A MOSTLY NORTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW FOR OTTO...TO THE EAST OF A BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGE...FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODEL SUITE. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/2100Z 30.7N 49.9W 35 KT 12HR VT 02/0600Z 30.0N 49.4W 35 KT 24HR VT 02/1800Z 29.2N 48.7W 30 KT 36HR VT 03/0600Z 28.3N 48.0W 30 KT 48HR VT 03/1800Z 27.4N 47.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 04/1800Z 26.0N 45.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 05/1800Z 25.0N 45.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED |
