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| #191307 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:23 PM 31.May.2008) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012008 100 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008 THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN BECAME A TROPICAL STORM AS IT WAS CROSSING THE COAST OF BELIZE EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...SHIP DATA AND A NOAA BUOY 42056 WHICH REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KNOTS BUT BECAUSE ARTHUR IS ALREADY INLAND..WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT ARTHUR REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS IF IT MOVES BACK OVER WATER IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/07. ARTHUR IS ALREADY SOUTH OF A DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...THEREFORE A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST TRACK IS FORECAST. NONE OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS ARTHUR NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT DESIGNATED TROPICAL STORM ALMA BECAUSE THE SURFACE CENTER OF ALMA DISSIPATED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA YESTERDAY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 31/1700Z 18.1N 88.5W 35 KT 12HR VT 01/0000Z 19.0N 90.0W 30 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 01/1200Z 19.5N 91.0W 30 KT...OVER WATER 36HR VT 02/0000Z 19.5N 93.0W 30 KT 48HR VT 02/1200Z 19.0N 94.0W 35 KT 72HR VT 03/1200Z 19.0N 95.0W 35 KT 96HR VT 04/1200Z 18.5N 96.5W 20 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA/RHOME |
