Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995
The Atlantic is quiet
|
Show Selection: |
| #191378 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:52 PM 31.May.2008) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012008 500 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008 ARTHUR REMAINS FAIRLY WELL-ORGANIZED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DESPITE BEING CENTERED OVER LAND FOR SEVERAL HOURS. ARTHUR HAS A LARGE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE BANDS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS WHERE MOST OF THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING. IN ADDITION...NEW CONVECTIVE CELLS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. BASED ON THE CLOUD PATTERN ARTHUR IS KEPT AS A 35-KT TROPICAL STORM AT THIS TIME...BUT WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT AS THE CENTER MOVES FARTHER INLAND. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IF THE CENTER MOVES OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. ARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE OR EVEN INLAND OVER MEXICO. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE WHICH UNANIMOUSLY KEEPS THE CYCLONE TRAPPED NEAR OR OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES THE CYCLONE OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 31/2100Z 18.4N 88.9W 35 KT 12HR VT 01/0600Z 18.7N 90.0W 30 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 01/1800Z 19.0N 91.5W 30 KT...OVER WATER 36HR VT 02/0600Z 19.0N 93.0W 30 KT 48HR VT 02/1800Z 19.0N 94.5W 35 KT 72HR VT 03/1800Z 18.5N 96.0W 35 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 04/1800Z 18.0N 97.0W 20 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA/RHOME |
