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| #191561 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:52 AM 01.Jun.2008) TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012008 1100 AM EDT SUN JUN 01 2008 LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT ARTHUR'S CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME ELONGATED AND CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. BASED ON THE OVERALL DECREASE IN ORGANIZATION...ARTHUR HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 30 KT. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND ARTHUR COULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. ARTHUR HAS TURNED TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 250/07. A GENERAL WESTWARD-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS KEEPING ARTHUR...OR ITS REMNANTS...OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND THERE NOW APPEARS TO BE LITTLE CHANCE THAT THE CYCLONE WILL EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. DESPITE THE DOWNGRADE TO A DEPRESSION AND ADDITIONAL FORECAST WEAKENING...ARTHUR WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER GUATEMALA...SOUTHERN MEXICO...AND BELIZE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/1500Z 18.1N 90.7W 30 KT...INLAND 12HR VT 02/0000Z 17.9N 91.6W 25 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 02/1200Z 17.7N 92.5W 25 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 03/0000Z 17.5N 93.6W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 03/1200Z 17.4N 94.7W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN |
