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| #191629 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:52 PM 01.Jun.2008) TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012008 500 PM EDT SUN JUN 01 2008 WHILE ARTHUR'S OVERALL SATELLITE APPEARANCE CONTINUES TO DEGRADE...A RECENT REPORT FROM SHIP A8MI2 OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN INDICATES THE MAX WINDS REMAIN NEAR 30 KT. ADDITIONALLY... CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THUS...THE CYCLONE WILL BE MAINTAINED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY. STILL...WITH THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION HAVING BEEN INLAND FOR MORE THAN 24 HOURS AND INCREASINGLY HIGH TERRAIN IN ITS ANTICIPATED PATH...ARTHUR APPEARS TO BE ON BORROWED TIME. THE CYCLONE COULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW LATER TONIGHT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...245/5...IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED AND A CONTINUED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK...ARTHUR...OR ITS REMNANTS...IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH. ARTHUR WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER GUATEMALA...SOUTHERN MEXICO...AND BELIZE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/2100Z 17.7N 91.1W 30 KT...INLAND 12HR VT 02/0600Z 17.4N 91.8W 25 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 02/1800Z 17.0N 92.9W 25 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 03/0600Z 16.9N 93.9W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 03/1800Z 16.9N 95.0W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN |
