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| #201197 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:34 PM 15.Jul.2008) TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 51 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 2100 UTC TUE JUL 15 2008 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.4N 62.3W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 75NE 90SE 75SW 75NW. 34 KT.......100NE 120SE 100SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 210SE 150SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.4N 62.3W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.2N 62.5W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 36.8N 61.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 90SE 75SW 75NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 36.3N 60.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 45SE 45SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 75SE 75SW 60NW. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 120SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 35.1N 59.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 75SE 75SW 60NW. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 120SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 34.2N 57.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 75SE 75SW 60NW. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 120SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 35.7N 53.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 39.5N 49.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 43.5N 44.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.4N 62.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE |
