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| #201711 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:55 PM 18.Jul.2008) TCDAT2 HURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 64 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 1100 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008 CONVECTION AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF BERTHA'S EYE HAS WEAKENED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED...SO BERTHA REMAINS A 65 KT HURRICANE. BERTHA IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A HURRICANE MUCH LONGER AS IT WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS WITHIN THEN NEXT 12-24 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING AS BERTHA BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL IN 24-36 HOURS. BERTHA CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD WITH A FORWARD SPEED OF ABOUT 22 KT. BERTHA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON A NORTHEAST HEADING DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT IS SLIGHTLY FASTER. HOWEVER...THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE GFS...BUT IS AHEAD OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE FORECAST 34 KT WIND RADII WERE EXPANDED OUTWARD OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0300Z 39.5N 48.8W 65 KT 12HR VT 19/1200Z 42.0N 46.0W 60 KT 24HR VT 20/0000Z 45.4N 42.1W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 20/1200Z 50.2N 37.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 21/0000Z 55.4N 32.1W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 22/0000Z 63.5N 20.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 23/0000Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
