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| #201753 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:37 AM 19.Jul.2008) TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008 500 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2008 SATELLITE...RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OF THE DEPRESSION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE BUT APPEARS TO BE ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A CYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 25 KNOTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN INTENSITY IS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST. NEVERTHERELESS...THE SYSTEM COLD BECOME A 35-KNOT TROPICAL STORM. AN AIR FORCE PLANE WILL CHECK THE DEPRESSION LATER TODAY. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 035 DEGREES AT 4 KNOTS AND THIS MOTION IS UNCERTAIN SINCE THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED UNTIL ABSORBED BY A SHORT WAVE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0900Z 32.4N 79.4W 25 KT 12HR VT 19/1800Z 33.0N 78.7W 30 KT 24HR VT 20/0600Z 34.0N 77.3W 35 KT 36HR VT 20/1800Z 35.0N 76.0W 35 KT 48HR VT 21/0600Z 36.5N 73.5W 35 KT 72HR VT 22/0600Z 39.0N 69.0W 35 KT 96HR VT 23/0600Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
