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| #201940 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:08 PM 19.Jul.2008) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008 1100 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2008 SATELLITE...RADAR...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW NO INDICATION THAT CRISTOBAL HAS STRENGTHENED THIS EVENING. CURRENTLY THE STORM IS CONVECTIVELY CHALLENGED...WITH THE COLD TOPS LIMITED TO A COUPLE OF BANDS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KT PENDING THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT AIRCRAFT AROUND 06Z. THE MORE OBVIOUS ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS DO FAVOR SOME STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...THESE BEING LIGHT SHEAR AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...AND WARM WATERS BELOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PRIMARILY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE. AT PRESENT THE WIND FIELD IS VERY ASYMMETRIC. HOWEVER...IF THE FORECAST STRENGTHENING OCCURS...CRISTOBAL COULD WRAP SOME OF THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AROUND TO THE WEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. THERE HAS BEEN NO MAJOR CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 045/5. CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD... VERY CLOSE TO THE COASTLINE...AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WITH SOME ACCELERATION AS IT ENTERS THE WESTERLIES. ONLY THE NOGAPS AND GFNI TAKE CRISTOBAL CLOSE TO EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT CRISTOBAL WILL BECOME ABSORBED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...ALTHOUGH I'VE ELECTED TO SHOW THE SYSTEM AS A SEPARATE ENTITY A LITTLE BIT LONGER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0300Z 33.4N 77.5W 40 KT 12HR VT 20/1200Z 34.1N 76.6W 45 KT 24HR VT 21/0000Z 35.2N 75.1W 50 KT 36HR VT 21/1200Z 36.8N 73.0W 55 KT 48HR VT 22/0000Z 39.0N 70.0W 45 KT 72HR VT 23/0000Z 45.0N 63.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 24/0000Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN |
