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| #202020 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:08 AM 20.Jul.2008) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008 1100 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008 EARLIER THIS MORNING...THE AIR FORCE PLANE REPORTED MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 54 KT...WITH SFMR MEASURMENTS OF ABOUT 45 KT. SINCE THEN...THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN SATELLITE IMAGES SO THE MAXIMUM WINDS WILL REMAIN 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS HAS SEEMINGLY PREVENTED CRISTOBAL FROM DEVELOPING MUCH CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. THE GFS SUGGESTS A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND A LITTLE BIT OF INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST AT THAT TIME. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL. THE INITIAL MOTION IS SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD...040/5. MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON AN ACCELERATING TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST AS CRISTOBAL BECOMES PICKED UP IN THE FLOW AHEAD OF A BROAD MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK. IN ABOUT TWO DAYS THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO START TO BECOME ABSORBED BY THE MIDDLE-LATITUDE TROUGH...AND BE FULLY ABSORBED BY 3 DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/1500Z 34.5N 76.4W 45 KT 12HR VT 21/0000Z 35.2N 75.3W 45 KT 24HR VT 21/1200Z 36.7N 73.2W 50 KT 36HR VT 22/0000Z 38.9N 70.2W 50 KT 48HR VT 22/1200Z 42.5N 65.9W 45 KT 72HR VT 23/1200Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER KNABB/BLAKE |
