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| #202045 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:00 PM 20.Jul.2008) TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008 200 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008 ...DOLLY ORGANIZING OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN... AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM THE BORDER WITH BELIZE TO CAMPECHE MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.5 WEST OR ABOUT 250 MILES...400 KM...EAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO AND ABOUT 200 MILES...320 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO. DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A NORTHWESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF DOLLY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND EMERGE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY BEFORE DOLLY REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ON MONDAY ONCE DOLLY EMERGES OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM FROM THE CENTER. DOLLY COULD PRODUCE WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA TODAY. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO AND WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES. AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES IS EXPECTED IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH A STORM TOTAL OF UP TO 8 INCHES. REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...18.6 N...84.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER KNABB |
