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| #202088 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:52 PM 20.Jul.2008) TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008 500 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008 ...DOLLY HEADING TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM THE BORDER WITH BELIZE TO CAMPECHE MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.0 WEST OR ABOUT 220 MILES...350 KM...EAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO AND ABOUT 165 MILES...265 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO. DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A NORTHWESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED BY TUESDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF DOLLY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO TONIGHT...EMERGE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY...AND MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF ON TUESDAY. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT BEFORE DOLLY REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTER DOLLY EMERGES OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM FROM THE CENTER. DOLLY COULD PRODUCE WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA TONIGHT. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO AND WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES. AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES IS EXPECTED IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH A STORM TOTAL OF UP TO 8 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...18.9 N...85.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER KNABB |
