Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995
The Atlantic is quiet
|
Show Selection: |
| #202090 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:55 PM 20.Jul.2008) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008 500 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008 THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASING IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STORM. HOWEVER...THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 5000 FT HAVE BEEN NO HIGHER THAN 46 KT RECENTLY...NORMALLY CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 35 KT AT THE SURFACE. THE SFMR DID MEASURE 46 KT IN DEEP CONVECTION SOUTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE. GIVEN THE LACK OF PERSISTENCE IN THE CONVECTION DURING THE LAST DAY OR SO...WE'RE GOING TO USE A COMPROMISE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 40 KT. SOME INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM FIGHTS THE DRY AIR ALOFT AND REMAINS OVER THE WARM GULF STREAM WATERS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN BEFORE...BUT ABOVE MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD AT 7 KT...A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE. THIS GENERAL TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASING FORWARD DUE TO FASTER STEERING CURRENTS BETWEEN A MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH TO THE EAST AND AN APPROACHING MIDDLE-LATITUDE TROUGH. IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...A COMBINATION OF SSTS BELOW 20C AND A LARGE INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD FACILITATE AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OF THE STORM. THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL PROBABLY ABSORB CRISTOBAL IN ABOUT THREE DAYS...THOUGH A FEW MODELS DO KEEP IT MORE SEPARATE FROM THE TROUGH. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GUIDANCE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/2100Z 34.7N 75.8W 40 KT 12HR VT 21/0600Z 35.9N 74.3W 45 KT 24HR VT 21/1800Z 37.9N 71.6W 45 KT 36HR VT 22/0600Z 40.8N 68.0W 45 KT 48HR VT 22/1800Z 44.0N 63.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 23/1800Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB |
