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| #202159 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:52 PM 20.Jul.2008) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008 1100 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008 AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE SFMR DATA INDICATED SURFACE WINDS OF 45 KT IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST QUADRANTS. CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SUGGESTS AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION OVER THIS PARTICULAR AREA. AS A RESULT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED SLIGHTLY. NO CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST...WITH CRISTOBAL HOLDING ON TO THE CURRENT INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS...EVEN WHEN THE CYCLONE COMPLETES AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AROUND THE 48 HOUR PERIOD. THE INITIAL MOTION IS AGAIN SLIGHTLY FASTER...BUT ON A SIMILAR HEADING...045/8. CRISTOBAL SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE FORWARD SPEED IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH...WITH FURTHER ACCELERATION AS IT MOVES INTO THE UPPER WESTERLIES. DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING THAT CRISTOBAL WILL REMAIN A SEPARATE ENTITY A LITTLE BIT LONGER BEFORE BEING ABSORBED BY A BAROCLINIC SYSTEM...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE NEW FORECAST TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/0300Z 35.2N 75.0W 45 KT 12HR VT 21/1200Z 36.5N 73.3W 45 KT 24HR VT 22/0000Z 38.9N 70.3W 45 KT 36HR VT 22/1200Z 41.9N 66.3W 45 KT 48HR VT 23/0000Z 44.7N 61.7W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 24/0000Z 46.0N 55.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 25/0000Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN |
