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| #202200 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:55 AM 21.Jul.2008) TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM DOLLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008 0900 UTC MON JUL 21 2008 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM THE BORDER WITH BELIZE TO CAMPECHE MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH MEXICO. THIS TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING. INTERESTS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DOLLY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 87.4W AT 21/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......150NE 150SE 0SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 0SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 87.4W AT 21/0900Z AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 86.8W FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 22.6N 89.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 50SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 23.6N 92.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 50SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 24.4N 94.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 25.0N 95.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 40SW 75NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 26.0N 98.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 40SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 26.5N 100.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.3N 87.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
