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| #202205 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:11 AM 21.Jul.2008) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008 500 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2008 THIS EVENING'S RECONNAISSANCE SFMR DATA INDICATED 40 KT IN THE EAST QUADRANT AND 51 KT AT 850 MB. OF 45 KT IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST QUADRANTS. ADDITIONALLY...SFMR RECORDED 59 KT ON AN INBOUND LEG OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CYCLONE. THIS ANOMALOUS WIND APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN DUE TO A LARGE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH AN ASSOCIATED WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...THAT EARLIER DETACHED FROM THE LARGE ARE OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN SIDE. CONSEQUENTLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KT AS A COMPROMISE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED...WITH THE CYCLONE HOLDING ON TO THE CURRENT INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS...INCLUDING WHEN THE SYSTEM COMPLETES AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AROUND THE 48 HOUR PERIOD. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 045/11...SLIGHTLY FASTER. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IT'S SPEED OF ADVANCE IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH...WITH FURTHER INCREASE IN SPEED AS IT MOVES INTO THE UPPER WESTERLY FLOW. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS KEEP CRISTOBAL AS A SEPARATE ENTITY DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED BY THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. A FEW OF THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT A WEAK SURFACE CIRCULATION WILL SURVIVE AND DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AROUND THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH...WHICH COULD HAPPEN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND FOLLOWS A BEND OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/0900Z 36.1N 73.9W 45 KT 12HR VT 21/1800Z 37.2N 72.1W 45 KT 24HR VT 22/0600Z 39.7N 69.0W 45 KT 36HR VT 22/1800Z 42.5N 65.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 23/0600Z 44.4N 61.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 24/0600Z 45.0N 52.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 25/0600Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH |
