Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995
The Atlantic is quiet
|
Show Selection: |
| #202240 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:08 AM 21.Jul.2008) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008 1100 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2008 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT CONVECTION REMAINS QUITE STRONG IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STORM. ON THE LAST PASS THROUGH THE STORM...THE AIR FORCE PLANE FOUND A FALLING PRESSURE AND SOME EVIDENCE OF A CENTER REFORMATION TO THE SOUTH. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING SUGGESTS THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE 50-55 KT...WHICH ISN'T TOO FAR FROM THE SFMR DATA COLLECTED BY THE PLANE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. SOME INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE WHILE THE CENTER MOVES ACROSS THE GULF STREAM AND THE SHEAR REMAINS LOW DURING THE NEXT 24 HR OR SO. THEREAFTER...CRISTOBAL IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM AND INTO A STRONGER SHEARING ENVIRONMENT...WHICH SHOULD BEGIN THE WEAKENING PROCESS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS WHICH SHOW THIS SYSTEM STAYING JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN DUE TO TO CENTER REFORMATION BUT IS ESTIMATED AT 055/11. A TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED IS LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE EAST WITH TIME AS IT MOVES INTO MORE WESTERLY FLOW. THE BIGGEST CHANGE FROM THE LAST ADVISORY IS THAT MORE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE STORM WON'T BE FULLY ABSORBED BY A TROUGH OVER NORTH AMERICA AND INSTEAD ROTATE AROUND THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AND IS EXTENDED TO 96 HR IN LINE WITH THE GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/1500Z 36.6N 72.6W 55 KT 12HR VT 22/0000Z 37.9N 70.6W 60 KT 24HR VT 22/1200Z 40.5N 67.5W 60 KT 36HR VT 23/0000Z 43.3N 63.5W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 23/1200Z 45.0N 59.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 24/1200Z 45.0N 47.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 25/1200Z 41.0N 40.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE |
