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| #202312 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:49 PM 21.Jul.2008) TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM DOLLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008 2100 UTC MON JUL 21 2008 A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO MEXICO NORTHWARD...ACROSS THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO AND THE UNITED STATES...AND ALONG THE TEXAS COAST TO PORT O`CONNOR. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM LA PESCA NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO...AND FOR THE TEXAS COAST FROM NORTH OF PORT O`CONNOR TO SAN LUIS PASS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREAS LATER TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 91.2W AT 21/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......150NE 120SE 0SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 60SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 91.2W AT 21/2100Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 90.4W FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 24.0N 93.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 50SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 24.9N 94.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 60SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 25.8N 96.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 60SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 26.4N 97.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 27.0N 99.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.1N 91.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KNABB |
