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| #202313 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:55 PM 21.Jul.2008) TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008 400 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2008 ...DOLLY EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN GULF... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO MEXICO NORTHWARD...ACROSS THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO AND THE UNITED STATES...AND ALONG THE TEXAS COAST TO PORT O`CONNOR. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM LA PESCA NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO...AND FOR THE TEXAS COAST FROM NORTH OF PORT O`CONNOR TO SAN LUIS PASS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREAS LATER TONIGHT. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 400 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.2 WEST OR ABOUT 420 MILES...680 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE COAST OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF DOLLY WILL BE MOVING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND WILL BE NEAR THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST BY WEDNESDAY. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND DOLLY IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BEFORE REACHING THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO SIX INCHES. REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION...23.1 N...91.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 700 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER KNABB |
