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| #202607 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:52 PM 22.Jul.2008) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008 500 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE MID-LEVEL CENTER OF CRISTOBAL IS RAPIDLY BECOMING DECOUPLED FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. WINDS ARE DECREASED TO 45 KT ON THIS ADVISORY AND SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL OVERNIGHT. A STEADY DECREASE IN STRENGTH IS SHOWN BY ALL GUIDANCE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD. STEADY WEAKENING AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IS ALSO FORECAST DUE TO A STRONG SHEARING ENVIRONMENT AND NO BAROCLINIC FORCING. CRISTOBAL HAS CONTINUED TO ACCELERATE AND IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 24 KT. MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE REMNANT OF CRISTOBAL ARE EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE EAST TOMORROW AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. GLOBAL MODELS TURN THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST DUE TO AN APPROACHING MIDDLE-LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD EITHER OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH OR BE ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. CANADIAN BUOY 44137 WAS VERY HELPFUL IN DETERMINING THE WIND RADII. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/2100Z 42.2N 62.9W 45 KT 12HR VT 23/0600Z 44.0N 58.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 23/1800Z 45.0N 53.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 24/0600Z 44.0N 48.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 24/1800Z 42.0N 43.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE |
