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| #202624 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:23 PM 22.Jul.2008) TCDAT4 HURRICANE DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008 500 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008 DOLLY IS BEING CLOSELY MONITORED BY THE NWS RADAR FROM BROWNSVILLE...NOAA BUOYS..SATELLITE AND VERY IMPORTANTLY...BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT. THE RADAR IS MEASURING 75 KNOTS AT ABOUT 20 THOUSAND FEET AND SHOW NUMEROUS RAINBANDS ALREADY APPROACHING THE COASTS OF NORTHEAST MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS. DVORAK ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT DOLLY IS A HURRICANE AND WIND DATA JUST RECEIVED FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAVE CONFIRMED IT. INITIAL INTENSITY IS 65 KNOTS. WITH THE PREVAILING LOW SHEAR...DOLLY IS FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST A LITTLE BIT STRONGER. DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A SMALL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF DOLLY SHOULD BE NEAR THE US/MEXICO BORDER WITHIN THE WARNING AREA ON WEDNESDAY. DOLLY IS LARGE CYCLONE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT. AFTER LANDFALL...DOLLY SHOULD TURN MORE TO WEST AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING THE CORE OF DOLLY INLAND IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. IT SHOULD BE RE-EMPHASIZED THAT...DUE TO THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES...ONE MUST NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT LANDFALL POINT IN THIS FORECAST. DUE TO THE SLOW MOTION AT LANDFALL...DOLLY COULD DUMP VERY HEAVY RAINS IN THE AREA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/2100Z 24.6N 95.3W 65 KT 12HR VT 23/0600Z 25.3N 96.4W 70 KT 24HR VT 23/1800Z 26.0N 97.5W 80 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 24/0600Z 26.0N 99.0W 40 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 24/1800Z 26.0N 100.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
