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| #202713 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:55 PM 22.Jul.2008) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008 1100 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008 WHILE THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE ASSOCIATED WITH CRISTOBAL HAS DEGRADED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...NEARBY BUOY AND SHIP REPORTS INDICATE THE SYSTEM IS STILL PRODUCING WINDS OF AT LEAST 40-45 KT. ACCORDINGLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. NOW THAT THE EARLIER BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED...WEAKENING SHOULD RESUME. CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...SINCE THERE WILL NOT BE ANY SIGNIFICANT BAROCLINIC FORCING...THE EXTRATROPICAL CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY BE ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM. CRISTOBAL CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND IS NOW MOVING AT AN ESTIMATED SPEED OF 30 KT. GLOBAL MODELS...SAVE THE UKMET... SUGGEST A DECREASE IN FOREWARD SPEED BUT THEY DID NOT ADVERTISE THE CURRENT ACCELERATION. ACCORDINGLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FASTER THAN AND NORTH OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE RECENT PERFORMANCE OF THE UKMET. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0300Z 44.0N 59.0W 45 KT 12HR VT 23/1200Z 45.1N 54.8W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 24/0000Z 45.0N 49.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 24/1200Z 43.3N 44.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 25/0000Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER RHOME |
